原油价格变动对中国基础工业收益的影响--基于格兰杰因果关系检验的实证研究

    The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on Chinese Basic Industries-Based on an Empirical Research in Granger Causality Test

    • 摘要: 以2006年1月4日-2014年7月31日的日数据为样本,采用向量自回归模型(VAR模型)、非线性检验、线性格兰杰因果关系检验、非线性格兰杰因果关系检验,选取电力及公用事业、钢铁、机械、基础化工、煤炭、原油石化六大基础工业,从行业角度研究原油价格对中国经济的影响关系。实证结果表明:原油价格变化率与钢铁、煤炭、石油石化行业存在显著的双向线性格兰杰因果关系,机械、基础化工到原油价格变化率存在显著的单向线性格兰杰因果关系,电力及公共事业与原油价格不存在线性格兰杰因果关系;原油价格变化率与6个基础工业存在显著地双向非线性因果关系。

       

      Abstract: The study used daily data from January 4, 2006 to July 31, 2014 and applied a vector auto-regression model(VAR), non-linear test, linear and nonlinear Granger causality test. It aimed to study the relationship between crude oil price and six basic industries of China which are electricity and utilities, steel, machinery, fundamental chemicals, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals. From empirical analysis, we have the following four main conclusions. Firstly, there is a significant two-way linear Granger causality between oil price returns and steel, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals. Secondly, machinery, fundamental chemical industries have unidirectional effect on crude oil returns in linear Granger causality test. Thirdly, there is no linear Granger causality between oil price return and electricity & utilities. Finally, there is a remarkable two-way non-linear Granger causality between oil price return and six basic industries.

       

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