人均CO2排放:收敛还是发散?——基于世界112个国家和地区数据的实证分析
Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?-Empirical Analysis based on the Data of the 112 Countries and Areas
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摘要: 基于一种新的收敛性检验方法和俱乐部收敛的识别算法,对世界112个国家和地区1971-2010年人均CO2排放的收敛性进行分析。研究发现:(1)就全样本112个国家和地区而言,人均CO2排放不存在收敛;(2)存在"高排放高增长""中排放中增长"和"低排放低增长"3个收敛俱乐部;(3)收入水平高的国家和地区倾向于向"高排放高增长"俱乐部收敛,能源价格越高的国家和地区倾向于向"低排放低增长"俱乐部收敛,而产业结构、国家和地区规模和能源效率的影响并不显著。Abstract: Based on a new method of convergence test and an identification algorithm of club convergence, this paper employs the sample of 112 countries over the world to examine the convergence of carbon dioxide emissions per capita. Our main findings are as follows.(1) Carbon dioxide emissions per capita of the whole sample does not converge.(2)There are three convergence clubs of carbon dioxide emissions per capita:"high emissions and high growth(HH)" club, "middle emissions and middle growth(MM)" club and "low emissions and low growth(LL)" club. (3)Countries of high income tend to converge to HH club; meanwhile countries of high energy price tend to converge to LL club; factors such as industry structure, country scale and energy efficiency do not play a significant role in the club convergence.
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