Abstract:
In recent years,the economic development of coal resource-based cities are facing unprecedented challenges due to the decline of coal price and crude oil price. Taking Ordos as the sample,we built the system dynamic model of the coal resource-based city copes with energy prices shock,and simulated the output value and total profit of coal industry,coal-chemical industry,downstream industries of coal and coal-chemical industries and the gross industries under different energy prices scenarios and regulatory policy scenarios. The results show that:the energy prices slump has certain stimulating function for the economic development of the downstream industries of coal and coal-chemical industries,however,on the whole,it caused negative effect on the economic development of Ordos. The regulatory effects of different policies are different under energy prices slump scenarios. Increasing technology investment and developing alternative industries have the most significant effect on the rising of whole industries' output value and total profit. Decreasing the value-added tax can increase industrial output value and profit quickly in the short term,while its long-term effect is significantly decreasing annually. Limit production policy can improve the total profit of the whole industries significantly and does not reduce the size of the economy. Financial support can increase the output value of gross industries,but it also does serious impact on the profit of gross industries.