Abstract: In recent years,China's coal industrial overcapacity problems become increasingly prominent under the impact of the slowing down economy development and the effective low-carbon utilization of energy. Selecting fixed assets investment,the concentration of the coal industry,coal export rate,the consumption of coal and policy impact indicators,using vector auto-regression method to analyze the influencing factors of China's coal industrial overcapacity. It concludes that the capacity utilization of coal has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the four quantified indicators. Then using the method of impulse response and variance decomposition quantify analysis the impact of these indicators to coal capacity utilization.The results show that:must reform the goverment regulatory system,strictly control the access mechanism of coal industry,and enhance the ability of innovation in coal enterprises to improve the diversification road of the coal industry.