Abstract: This paper studies the effect of tax rebate policy to trade growth rate of monthly data,with selected tax rebate policy case data in July 2007 as experimental environment. We find that the effect of reduced tax rebate rate to primary products' trade growth rate is negative,the effect is not evident about resource products. The robust test shows that the effect of reduced tax rebate rate to trade growth rate is continuous and lagging,the effect is also different among products,through window width revision、counterfactual test and three great tax rebate policy adjustment analysis,the conclusions are still effective. This research suggests policy makers should assess the environment and industry characteristics of trade correctly,choose appropriate combination products of tax rebate policy involved,these practice is contributed to realize their targets.