Abstract:
The trading of European Union Allowance(EUA) futures contracts under the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)and secondary Certified Emissions Reductions(sCER) futures contracts under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has become dominant international carbon markets,and it is noteworthy to achieve effective arbitrage for investors between the two carbon market. Thus,this paper employs DCC-TGARCH models to explore the dynamic correlation between EUA and sCER futures prices and investigates the optimal ratios and effectiveness of various arbitrage strategies during 2009-2016. The results indicate that,first,during the sample period,there exists significant positive time-varying correlation between the two carbon futures markets,but their correlation extent gradually becomes weaker over time. Second,the optimal ratios of constant correlation-TGARCH(1,1) and DCC-TGARCH(1,1) models also change over time. Finally,the effectiveness of dynamic arbitrage generally appears better than that of static arbitrage,and DCC-TGARCH(1,1) model performs better than the constant correlation-TGARCH(1,1) model; meanwhile,the average returns of investment portfolio with arbitrages prove higher than those without any arbitrages. These results may help investors to make cross-market arbitrages in carbon futures markets.