中国股票市场信息流关联网络——基于转移熵的实证研究

    Information Flow Correlation Network to China's Stock Market—Empirical Study based on Transfer Entropy

    • 摘要: 以中国A股市场为研究对象,对2005-2016年股票间信息流关联网络进行研究。利用转移熵对股票间非对称、非线性信息流进行测度;以此为关联性指标,基于阈值法和滚动时间窗方法构建随时间演化的股票间有向加权信息流关联网络。运用平均最短路径和聚集系数等复杂网络理论,以及蓄意攻击和随机故障等分析方法,对信息流关联网络的宏观拓扑特征、关键节点、小世界性等进行分析。研究发现:在市场总体行情剧烈波动和相对平稳时期,股票间皆可能存在强烈的信息交互。随时间演化的网络拓扑结构具有结构性差异,部分时期的信息流关联网络具有小世界效应,同时存在影响范围和影响力极大的关键节点股票,是潜在的风险窗口期。蓄意攻击和随机故障下的小世界性分析表明,关键风险节点股票在控制全局风险的同时可能会导致局部风险加剧。

       

      Abstract: Information flow network, which was constructed on information flows between stocks traded in China's stock market over the period from 2005 to 2016, was studied. Transfer entropy was employed to quantify asymmetric and non-linear information flows between stocks. Then directed-weighted information flow networks were constructed by employing a threshold value and sliding window method. Average path length and clustering coefficient borrowed from complex theory and methods such as intentional attack and random failure were used to analyze the characteristics of networks, such as network topologies, key nodes and small-worldness. Studies showed that there was intense information interactions between stocks during both volatile and relative stable periods in question, and structural differences are observed among time-varying information flow networks. Changing characteristics of network topologies show that information flow networks at certain calendar dates showing effects of small-world and with presence of nodes exhibiting extreme influences at the same time. Furthermore, small-worldness analysis based on intentional attack and random failure imply that risk control based on key stocks will reduce global risk but may intensify local risk contagion.

       

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