Abstract:
In the 19th CPC National Congress,President Xi pointed out that major social contradictions in China have been changed. Similar contradictions in energy economy were also highlighted. Using Scenario analysis and Theil index analysis,this paper analyzes the current situation of energy economy development from the perspective of imbalance and inadequacy,forecasts regional energy consumption from 2018 to 2022,and discusses new direction of energy development after the 19th CPC. With the reform of supply-side structure and adjustment of industrial structure,the speed of growth in total energy consumption slowed down. In the baseline scenario,the total energy consumption in 2018-2022 is expected to increase slightly and the share of non-fossil energy consumption is expected to exceed 16.2% in 2022. Comparing to the results of Theil Index in the economy and energy in 2017,the overall economic imbalance in 2022 will not significantly increase,while the energy imbalance in 2022 will be further increased. Based on the results,the level of economic imbalance will rise mainly in the eastern region,while the increase in the imbalance of regional energy consumption would be mainly observed in the west. Finally,it is suggested that,to reduce the gaps in economic development and energy consumption across regions,more attention should be paid to the differences of endowments in different regions and try to accelerate economic and social development in the western region.