Abstract:
Identification and assessment of impact factors of electricity demand help to scientifically design the power industry and to develop sustainably. However,due to the lack of data and the limitation of research perspective,temperature change as a key influential factor only receives few attentions from existing studies. Based on meteorological database,this paper uses the method of constructing HDD(Heating Degree Days) and CDD(Cooling Degree Days) to measure the temperature changes of 255 cities in China from 2000 to 2014,and uses panel data analysis method to examine the influence of temperature change index on urban power demand in China. The empirical results show that:(1)The increase in the number of CDD in the temperature change index will significantly increase the power consumption of Chinese cities. If CDD increases 1℃ in a year,electricity consumption will increase 23 300 kWh in the whole society,and the GDP of the same city will also increase by 0.170 7 million yuan.(2)From the perspective of the electricity demand structure,the increase in CDD and HDD will significantly increase the residential electricity consumption,while only the increasing of CDD will significantly increase the industrial electricity consumption.(3)The higher level of economic development and industrialization,the higher electricity demand of the whole society generated by CDD. The level of economic growth,geographical location and seasonal characteristics will influence the relationship between temperature change and electricity demand.