Abstract:
The fluctuation of environmental pollution is an important basis for making environmental policies. Based on the improved real business cycle (RBC) model, this paper discusses the fluctuation of environmental pollution in China. The results show that: first, the fluctuation of environmental pollution is highly pro-cyclical in China, which has a strong correlation with output fluctuation; Secondly, the shocks of technological progress, environmental regulation, investment proprietary technology, consumption preference and labor supply can explain most of the cyclical fluctuation of environmental pollution in China; Third, technological progress and investment proprietary technology have a sustained positive impact on environmental pollution, while environmental regulation, consumption preference and labor supply have a negative impact on environmental pollution. Among them, the impact of environmental regulation lasts for a short time, the impact of consumption preference is only positive at the beginning and negative for a long time, and the impact of labor supply lasts for a long time. Therefore, under the fluctuation of environmental pollution, promoting green technology progress, guiding green consumption and increasing the supply of labor force are effective ways to curb pollution.