低碳城市试点政策的工业污染物净减排效应基于合成控制法

    Analysis of the Net Emission Reduction Effect of the Industrial Pollutants in Low-carbon Pilot CitiesBased on Synthetic Control Method

    • 摘要: 基于2001—2018年中国84个城市的面板数据,运用合成控制法对24个低碳试点城市的工业污染物净减排效应进行分析,并以安慰剂检验和DID估计做稳健性验证。研究发现:(1)天津、南昌、贵阳、昆明、镇江和遵义等六个城市的工业废水排放强度因低碳试点政策而显著降低;(2)低碳试点政策使厦门和镇江的工业SO2排放强度以及宁波、青岛和镇江的工业烟尘排放强度显著下降;(3)保定、石家庄和乌鲁木齐的工业固体废物利用率因低碳试点政策而显著提高;(4)污染物减排效应具有种类异质性,工业废水减排效应最显著,工业废气的减排效应次之,工业固体废物减排效应最弱;(5)污染物减排效应具有城市异质性,城市的经济发展水平、经济结构和行政等级对低碳政策效应均产生影响。有鉴于此,认为应该优化城市产业结构,促进治污减排技术的应用推广,提高工业生产效率,提升城市管理能力,推动城市低碳转型,实现治污减排与经济发展和谐共赢。

       

      Abstract: Based on the panel data of 84 cities in China from 2001 to 2008, synthetic control method is employed to analyze the net emission reduction effect of the industrial pollutants in 24 low-carbon pilot cities, and corresponding robustness is verified using placebo test and DID estimation. The research finds: (1) Because of the low-carbon pilot policy, the sewage discharge intensity in six cities covering Tianjin, Nanchang, Guiyang, Kunming, Zhenjiang and Zunyi is significantly decreased. (2) The reduction of SO2 emission intensity in Xiamen and Zhenjiang, as well as the reduction of dust emission intensity in Ningbo, Qingdao and Zhenjiang, should be ascribed to the implementation of the low-carbon pilot policy. (3) Because of the low-carbon pilot policy, the solid waste use ratio in Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Urumqi is significantly increased. (4) In respect of pollutants type heterogeneity, industrial sewage ranks first in emission reduction effects, successively followed by industrial exhaust gas and industrial solid wastes. (5) In respect of city heterogeneity, urban economic development level, economic structure and administrative level all have a bearing on the policy effects. Given this, the paper proposes that efforts should be made to optimize industrial structure, promote pollution control and emission reduction technologies, improve productivity and urban governance capacity, push forward the low-carbon transition of the city and realize the harmonious development of pollution control and emission pollution and economic growth.

       

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