中国能源经济指数研究基于行业视角

    Research on China’s Energy Economy IndexAn Industry Perspective

    • 摘要: 为应对当前社会经济和能源发展格局正在发生的深刻变化,提出一套体现新时代发展内涵的能源经济指数来探讨中国未来经济高质量发展的新机遇具有重要的现实意义。基于行业视角,从宏观经济环境、中观产业发展和微观企业表现三个层次,选取宏观经济、政策支持、行业供需、行业高质量、股票指数和财务绩效六大维度,评估能源行业的经济表现。运用2014年第一季度至2020年第二季度数据进行实证测算,结合因子分析、层次分析等方法合成各能源行业得分,再根据各年份能源消费结构赋权合成能源经济指数。结果显示:2017年能源改革初见成效,能源经济指数达到高点;2020年初受新冠疫情冲击能源经济指数跌入低点,但2020年第二季度宏观经济和能源经济开始明显回暖;多数能源行业的高质量发展水平持续提升,其中光伏和新能源车行业最为突出。

       

      Abstract: The pattern of social economy and energy development is undergoing profound changes. It is necessary to construct a set of indexes reflecting the connotation of energy development in the new era to explore new opportunities for high-quality economic development of China. Based on the industry perspective, this study selects six dimensions of macroeconomics, policy support, industry supply-demand, industry high-quality level, stock index, and financial performance, which from the three levels: macroeconomic environment, meso-level industry development, and micro-firm performance to measure the energy industry. Using the data from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2020. Combine factor analysis and level analysis to synthesize the scores of each energy industry, and then synthesize energy economic indexes based on energy consumption structure. the empirical calculation showed that the energy reform in 2017 has achieved some results and the comprehensive performance of the energy economy has reached a high point. The COVID-19 led the energy economy index to fall to its lowest point in history in 2020, but showed a clear trend of recovery in the second quarter; the high-quality development level of most energy industries has continued to improve, of which the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industries are the most prominent.

       

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