Abstract:
Achieving carbon neutrality is a complex project, facing the challenges of very limited time and heavy task. To formulate a scientific roadmap for emission reduction, it requires us to balance the synergy between long-term and short-term actions, emission reduction and economic development, and local and overall targets. To this end, this study applied the National Energy Technology Model (C
3IAM / NET) to put forward the timetable and roadmap for achieving China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goal that takes into account the cost-effectiveness and safety. The specific action plan of national carbon emission path, sectoral emission reduction responsibility, and key technology layout is clearly present here. The results show that if the natural carbon sink is 1-3 billion tons available in 2060, China needs to achieve the carbon peak during 2026—2029 depending on the scenarios of the socio-economic development; the carbon emissions in 2060 are mainly from power industry, iron and steel industry, chemical industry, transportation sector, etc.; and it is necessary to accelerate the energy transition towards clean energy, but coal will still be the largest energy source in China before 2040, which needs to be no less than 44% in 2030. In addition, this study further gives the carbon emission path and technology layout plan for key industries corresponding to the national carbon peak and carbon neutrality roadmap, such as iron and steel, cement, nonferrous metals, chemical, and power industry as well as building and transportation sectors. This can provide a scientific basis and operational action plan for China to lead and participate in global climate governance.