经济增长和空气污染如何影响就业?基于动态面板模型的实证分析

    How Does Economic Growth and Air Pollution Affect Employment?An Empirical Analysis based on Dynamic Panel Model

    • 摘要: 就业是最大的民生工程,同时是社会稳定的重要保障。而经济和环境是影响就业的重要因素,研究两者对就业的影响方向及作用机制,对实现充分就业具有重要意义。有别于已有研究考察经济或环境单个因素对就业的影响,选取2008—2017年30个省(自治区、直辖市)的数据构建动态面板模型,将经济和环境纳入同一分析框架,研究经济增长、空气污染及两者交互项的就业效应和作用机理。研究结果表明:第一,经济增长、空气污染的就业效应有所不同,经济增长有利于扩大劳动力就业规模,而空气污染对其产生不利影响。不同性别人群具有异质性,相对女性劳动力而言,男性劳动力就业对经济增长和空气污染更加敏感。第二,经济增长、空气污染的交互作用进一步对劳动力就业产生影响,全国和东部地区具有显著促进作用,中部和东北地区产生显著抑制作用,西部地区交互项对劳动力就业作用不明显。基于以上结论,本文提出改善空气质量以增加劳动力供给、因地制宜推动经济和环境协调发展以扩大地区就业规模等的政策建议。

       

      Abstract: Employment is not only the biggest livelihood project, but also an important guarantee of social stability. Economy and environment are important factors affecting employment, so it is of great significance to study the direction and mechanism of their influence on employment, to realize full employment. Different from existing research which exams the influence of a single factor, either economy or environment, on employment, this paper creatively puts economy and environment into the same analysis framework, using 2008—2017 data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government to build a dynamic panel model, and study economic growth and air pollution as well as their employment effect and interaction mechanism. The results are as follows. First, the employment effects of the two factors are different: economic growth is conducive to the expansion of labor employment scale, while air pollution has a negative impact on it. In addition, different gender groups have heterogeneity. Compared with female labor force, male labor force employment is more sensitive to economic growth and air pollution. Second, the interaction of economic growth and air pollution has further influence on labor employment, which has a significant promoting effect in the whole country and the eastern region, and a significant inhibiting effect in the central and northeast regions. The interaction term has no obvious effect on labor employment in the western region. Based on the above conclusions, in this paper, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as improving air quality to increase labor supply, promoting coordinated development of economy and environment according to local conditions to expand regional employment scale, etc.

       

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