Abstract:
Under the unprecedented changes of the century, the achievement of carbon neutral goals is no longer just focused on carbon emissions, but is also closely related to digital revolution, COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and other important situations at home and abroad. Consequently, there is an urgent need to conduct more systematic climate policy research with a broader disciplinary perspective and a more detailed spatial and temporal pattern. Based on the review of the development process of climate policy research and the judgment of future research trends, the frontiers and development needs of climate policy research are proposed in three aspects, including multidimensional risks and benefits, multi-agent behavioral response mechanisms, and optimization of carbon neutral transition routes. The first aspect is to weigh the risks and benefits of a systematic zero-carbon transition, assess the costs and benefits of climate policy deployment and their distributional differences across time and space and among different populations, and provide a theoretical basis for grasping the pace and intensity of carbon reduction. The second aspect is to identify the driving and incentive mechanisms of demand-side behaviors, design carbon-neutral behavioral interventions and policies for well-being and equity, and provide policy traction for mobilizing broad social participation. The third aspect is to study the positioning and roadmap of key strategic technologies for carbon neutrality, overcome the challenges of coordinated development of different systems and keeping consistent pace among various industries in the transition process through locally and temporally appropriate technology deployment, and provide policy solutions for carbon neutrality to promote high-quality development. To leverage these key scientific understandings for carbon neutral transformation, there is a need to break through the development of a new generation of climate policy models, address the coupling of micro uncertainty simulation and macro integrated assessment models, and incorporate key processes of the climate-society-technology system such as risk perception, technology diffusion, investment and financing, consumption behavior, and policy impact and feedback into integrated assessment models.