Abstract:
The carbon neutrality goal will accelerate the process of China’s energy low-carbon transformation, and promote structural change in China’s economy and society. To this end, this paper first systematically sorts out the energy and economic characteristics of carbon peaking countries, as well as carbon neutral policies in key areas of typical countries, and identifies noteworthy emission reduction measures and low-carbon policies. On this basis, this paper uses the dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China's energy economy (CGE model) to comprehensively simulate the impacts of four types of emission reduction policies and their combinations, and clears the China’s transformation and development path under the carbon neutrality goals, including total carbon emission paths, industry emission reduction plans, and deep decarbonization of energy. Research shows that only 48 policy combinations out of 1 295 policy scenarios can achieve the carbon neutrality goal, which reveal the arduousness of reducing emissions tasks. To realize the carbon neutrality goal, China need to achieve the carbon peak by 2029, with a peak value of no more than 10.42 billion tons, and the carbon emissions in 2040 and 2050 need to be controlled below 7.7 billion tons and 4.5 billion tons. The carbon reductions are mainly from power industry, fossil energy industry, heavy industry and light industry, and it is necessary to give full play to their emission reduction role during different periods according to the differentiated emission paths. China should also promote the transformation of the energy system with non-fossil energy as the dominant supply, and further strengthen the leading position of electric energy in final energy use. The share of non-fossil energy in total primary energy consumption should increase to more than 81% by 2060, and the electrification share should increase to 74% by 2060. In addition, the economic cost of achieving carbon neutrality is controllable, and the average annual GDP growth rate from 2020 to 2060 is expected to remain above 3.46%.