碳中和目标实现下中国转型发展路径研究

    Research on the Pathway for China’s Transformation and Development toward Carbon Neutrality

    • 摘要: 碳中和目标不仅会促进中国能源系统低碳转型,也将推动中国经济结构发生转变。研究梳理了碳达峰国家达峰时的能源结构、经济特征和重点领域碳中和政策,从而识别出需重点关注的减排措施和低碳政策。基于此,利用中国能源经济动态可计算一般均衡模型(CGE模型),综合模拟了四种类型减排政策(组合)对中国宏观经济、能源和排放的影响,分析了中国在碳中和目标约束下的碳排放路径、行业减排规划、能源深度脱碳进程等多个层面的转型发展方案。研究表明,1 295个组合政策情景中仅有48个政策组合可实现碳中和目标,减排任务艰巨;要实现碳中和目标,中国能源排放需在2029年前达峰,峰值不超过104.2亿吨,2040年和2050年的碳排放量需控制在77亿吨和45亿吨以下;化石能源、电力、重工业和轻工业是重点减排部门,不同时期需重点聚焦的部门需要动态调整;加快能源结构向非化石能源转型,强化电能在终端用能中的主体地位,2060年非化石能源消费占比超过81%,终端电气化率需提高至74%;实现碳中和目标的整体经济代价可控,2020—2060年GDP年均增速有望保持在3.46%左右。

       

      Abstract: The carbon neutrality goal will accelerate the process of China’s energy low-carbon transformation, and promote structural change in China’s economy and society. To this end, this paper first systematically sorts out the energy and economic characteristics of carbon peaking countries, as well as carbon neutral policies in key areas of typical countries, and identifies noteworthy emission reduction measures and low-carbon policies. On this basis, this paper uses the dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China's energy economy (CGE model) to comprehensively simulate the impacts of four types of emission reduction policies and their combinations, and clears the China’s transformation and development path under the carbon neutrality goals, including total carbon emission paths, industry emission reduction plans, and deep decarbonization of energy. Research shows that only 48 policy combinations out of 1 295 policy scenarios can achieve the carbon neutrality goal, which reveal the arduousness of reducing emissions tasks. To realize the carbon neutrality goal, China need to achieve the carbon peak by 2029, with a peak value of no more than 10.42 billion tons, and the carbon emissions in 2040 and 2050 need to be controlled below 7.7 billion tons and 4.5 billion tons. The carbon reductions are mainly from power industry, fossil energy industry, heavy industry and light industry, and it is necessary to give full play to their emission reduction role during different periods according to the differentiated emission paths. China should also promote the transformation of the energy system with non-fossil energy as the dominant supply, and further strengthen the leading position of electric energy in final energy use. The share of non-fossil energy in total primary energy consumption should increase to more than 81% by 2060, and the electrification share should increase to 74% by 2060. In addition, the economic cost of achieving carbon neutrality is controllable, and the average annual GDP growth rate from 2020 to 2060 is expected to remain above 3.46%.

       

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