城市层面能源-经济-环境-社会耦合协调发展的动态演化与实证分析以江苏省为例

    Dynamic Evolution and Empirical Analysis of Coordinated and Coupling Development of Energy-Economy-Environment-Society at Urban LevelA Case Study of Jiangsu Province

    • 摘要: 立足于城市层面,基于多系统耦合协调发展视角和系统存—增量特征,构建一个兼顾能源消费、经济发展、环境保护和社会进步的指标体系,并以江苏省为例,从时空维度对13个地级市2015—2019年能源—经济—环境—社会耦合协调发展水平及其动态演化规律进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:江苏省能源和环境系统发展水平相对较高,能源—经济—环境—社会总体耦合协调性较好,但不同城市之间存在明显的异质性,具体表现为苏南地区城市群优于苏中,苏中优于苏北。苏州作为江苏省的第一大经济体,其能源—经济—环境—社会耦合协调发展水平最高。同时,南京、南通和宿迁耦合协调发展水平呈现出逐年改善的特点。此外,镇江、连云港、徐州四系统耦合协调发展水平波动性较大,需要重点关注并制定改善方案。针对江苏省城市耦合协调发展存在异质性的问题,建议加强省内城市经济交流与产业互助的力度,依托国家“新基建”战略,加快推动能源—经济—环境—社会的耦合协调转变。

       

      Abstract: On the basis of coupling development of multi-system and the characteristics of stock and increment, an indicator system that takes into account energy consumption, economic development, environmental protection and social progress at urban level was constructed, and the coefficients of increment and stock were calculated. Taking Jiangsu province as an example, the study empirically analyzed the coupling level of 13 prefecture-level cities from the perspective of temporal and spatial distribution during 2015—2019. The research results show that Jiangsu province has made significant progress in promoting coupling and coordination of energy, economy, environment and society, but there exists obvious heterogeneity between different cities. Specifically, southern cities perform better than central cities, and central cities better than northern cities. At the same time, as the largest economy in Jiangsu province, Suzhou has the best performance in coordinated development of energy, economy, environment and society, reaching the highest level. In addition, Nanjing, Nantong, and Suqian have shown a steadily improving trend of coupling level, while coupling levels in Zhenjiang, Lianyungang and Xuzhou fluctuate greatly, which needs to be focused on and needs improvement plans. Finally, this paper further discussed the heterogeneity of coupling and coordinated development at the city level and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.

       

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