电力跨区传输视角下电动汽车规模化应用的碳排放转移

    Carbon Emission Transfer by Large-scale Application of Electric Vehicles from the Perspective of Inter-regional Electricity Transmission

    • 摘要: 电动汽车的推广应用可以有效减少尾气排放甚至达到零排放,但其实质是将污染排放转移至发电侧。近年来中国电动汽车市场由于政策驱动呈“井喷”式发展,因而电动汽车大规模用电需求背后隐含的碳排放转移问题日益引发关注。为此,基于电力跨区传输视角,构建电动汽车碳排放转移定量测算模型;在此基础上设立多种规模化应用情景,测算不同情景下各省电动汽车碳排放转移量,总结其空间分布规律;进而分析各省电动汽车规模化应用的环境收益/成本。研究结果表明:电动汽车的发展会加剧碳排放在区域之间的流动,全国电动汽车在发展受阻情景、基准情景和快速发展情景下的碳排放转移量分别达到5.85×106吨CO2当量、9.37×106吨CO2当量和23.43×106吨CO2当量;碳排放转移的主要路径为经济发达的沿海地区向欠发达的中西部地区输出碳排放,且华北和华东电网内部各省间也存在大量的碳排放转移;碳排放除了由电力流入地向电力流出地直接转移,还会通过电力枢纽地区间接流向其他地区,产生间接碳排放转移,北京和上海的间接碳排放转移量甚至超过总排放转移量的15%;电力跨区传输对电动汽车规模化应用的环境价值有正向影响,有利于提升全国总体环境效益。因此,在合理布局各省电动汽车发展规模和优先次序过程中,除了要关注电动汽车的总体环境效益,还应从电力跨区传输视角尽可能缓解碳排放转移对电力输出地区的环境压力。

       

      Abstract: The promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) can effectively reduce tailpipe emissions or even achieve zero emissions, but the essence is the transfer of pollution emissions to the power generation side. In recent years, the policy-driven development of China’s EV market has achieved a great success, which has drawn increasing attention to carbon emission transfer behind the large-scale electricity consumption of EVs. Based on the perspective of inter-regional electricity trade, this study builds a quantitative model to measure the carbon emission transfer of EVs under several scenarios, and summarizes the spatial distribution of carbon emission transfer. Furthermore, we analyze the environmental benefits/costs of the large-scale application of EVs. Results showed that the development of electric vehicles will intensify the flow of carbon emissions among regions, and the carbon emissions transfer of EVs under the blocked development scenario, the baseline scenario and the rapid development scenario reach 5.85×106 tons, 9.37×106 tons and 23.43×106 tons CO2 equivalent respectively. Main path of carbon emissions transfer is the export of carbon emissions from the economically developed coastal regions to the less developed central and western regions, and there is also a large amount of carbon emissions transfer between provinces within the North China and East China power grids. In addition to the direct transfer of carbon emissions from power importers to power exporters, emissions also flow to other regions through power hubs indirectly, resulting in indirect carbon emissions transfer. The amount of indirect carbon emissions transfer in Beijing and Shanghai even exceed 15% of the total carbon emissions transfer. The inter-regional electricity trade has considerable environmental value for the large-scale application of EVs, which is conducive to enhance the overall environmental benefits of the country. Therefore, in the process of rational distribution of the development scale and priorities of EVs, except for paying attention to the overall environmental benefits of EVs, the environmental pressure on the power exporting regions should also be alleviated as much as possible.

       

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