Abstract:
The linkage and mutual development of carbon market and electricity market will become an important feature of the development of market mechanism under the “double carbon” strategy. In view of the fact that previous studies have focused on foreign mature carbon electricity markets, there are few empirical studies on the linkage of domestic carbon electricity markets, and more attention has been paid to price relations, and related research is not comprehensive and in-depth. This research comprehensively considers the interaction of market structure, operation and subject behavior, expounds the collaborative interaction mechanism of carbon electricity market, constructs a system dynamics model, and explores the linkage effect of carbon market and electricity market under different market development scenarios in the future. The research shows that in terms of price, the carbon price in 2021—2030 will experience the development stage of long-term low in the early stage and rapid rise in the later stage. It is expected that the carbon price will rise to 118~200 yuan / ton in 2030; in the early stage, the impact of carbon cost on electricity price is not obvious. In the later stage, with the increase of carbon price, it will rise to 0.50~0.65 yuan / kWh, and the higher the proportion of allowance auction, the more obvious the transmission effect of carbon cost on electricity price. In terms of market structure, the carbon market helps to optimize the allocation of resources in the electricity market and eliminate high-carbon backward units. In 2030, the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will reach 29.23 % ~33.06 %.