碳捕集利用与封存一体化技术研究进展与产业发展策略

    Research Progress and Industry Development Strategy of Integrated Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage Technology

    • 摘要: 碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)技术对于实现中国“双碳”目标具有重要意义,在成本高、技术不成熟等挑战下,具有整合产业链资源、降低中间成本等优势的CCUS一体化技术成为主要发展方向。基于学术研究和产业应用的数据,调研并梳理CCUS一体化技术的现状,进而针对技术成熟度、政策支持与商业模式进行全面评估并提出综合产业发展策略。未来应聚焦于百万吨级CCUS一体化技术项目,驱油埋存技术体系及其产业集群建设。基于技术成熟度(TRL)分析发现,2030年前应主要发展TRL6以上的技术,目前处于TRL4-5及TRL1-3的技术将分别在2030—2045年以及2045年之后广泛应用。在政策支持上,早期应积极出台直接经济支持政策并拓宽融资方式,而从中长期角度,应以碳市场为主导,配合实施额外绿色电力配额等政策。在商业模式上,前期应以国有企业为主导,应用垂直整合模式;在前中期阶段应用合资企业模式以保障技术基础不强企业的项目开展;在中长期阶段,相继应用二氧化碳转运和CCUS运营商模式以解决地理和资源制约等问题。

       

      Abstract: Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology is crucial to achieving “Carbon Peak and Neutrality Target”. Given the challenges of high cost and technology immaturity, the integrated CCUS technology, which has the advantages of integrating industry chain resources and reducing intermediate costs, has become the main option. Based on the progress of academic research and industrial applications, the status of integrated CCUS technology was investigated and reviewed in the present study, and then the technology readiness level, policy support and business model were evaluated comprehensively. The megaton integrated CCUS technology projects, CO2 flooding-storage technology system, and the industrial clusters need to be focused on in the future. Based on the technology readiness level (TRL) analysis, it is found that technologies above TRL 6 will be mainly adopted before 2030, and technologies currently at TRL 4-5 and TRL 1-3 will be widely adopted during 2030—2045 and after 2045, respectively. In terms of policy support, direct economic support policies and multiple financing methods need to be proposed in the early stage, while from the medium to long-term perspective, the carbon market will take the lead and policies such as the extra electricity quota need to be implemented in coordination. In terms of business models, in the early stage, the state-owned enterprises that apply the vertical integration model need to play a leading role; in the early to mid-term stage, the joint venture model needs to be applied to guarantee the project development of enterprises with insufficient technology foundation; while from the medium to long-term perspective, the CO2 transporter model and CCUS operator model will be applied successively to overcome the constraints such as geographical and resource endowment. The research results of the present study have important reference value for decision making to promote the development of integrated CCUS technology and then achieve its large-scale commercial application.

       

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