省级能源高质量发展指数研究(2012—2022年)

    High-quality Energy Development Index in 31 Provinces (2012—2022)

    • 摘要: 新时代的中国能源发展需坚定不移走高质量发展新道路,以保障安全为前提,构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系。省级能源高质量发展是因地制宜推动区域能源发展的关键环节,为引导各省能源发展增强对标意识和赶超意识,亟需构建一套可追踪、可评估、可勘测的中国省级能源高质量发展指数。从能源保供、能源消费、能源结构、能源技术四个维度展开,界定16项新时代能源高质量发展内涵指标,以此对中国31个省份2012—2022年能源高质量发展水平和动态演变进行测算分析,并预测2023年变动趋势。结果显示:中国整体能源高质量发展在小幅波动中稳步向高水平迈进,并呈现省际差异缩小态势。2022年,广东、江苏、北京为能源高质量发展标杆省份;山西、内蒙古在能源稳价保供方面发挥了关键作用;四川在应急、调峰等系统调节方面能力严重不足。预期2023年头部省份能源高质量发展水平稳定,尾部省份稳中向好,而中后部省份有下降趋势。

       

      Abstract: In the new era, China’s energy development needs to follow a new path of high-quality development. A clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system should be built on the premise of ensuring security. The high-quality development of provincial energy is the key to promote regional energy development according to local conditions. In order to guide the energy development of provinces and enhance the awareness of standard and catch-up, it is necessary to build a set of trackable, evaluable and surveyable high quality development index of China's provincial energy. From four dimensions of energy supply security, energy consumption, energy structure and energy technology, this study defines 16 connotation indicators of high-quality energy development in the new era, and calculates and analyzes the development level and dynamic performance of high-quality energy development in 31 provinces in China during 2012—2022, and predicts the change trend in 2023. The results show that the overall high-quality development of energy in China is moving steadily to a high level with small fluctuations, and the inter-provincial differences are narrowing. In 2022, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Beijing will become the benchmark provinces for high-quality energy development. Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have played a key role in ensuring energy prices and supply. Sichuan's emergency response, peak regulation and other systems are seriously inadequate. It is expected that in 2023, the development level of high-quality energy in the top provinces will be stable, the tail provinces will be stable and improve, and the middle and rear provinces will have a downward trend.

       

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