气候变化的社会经济影响实证研究综述

    A Review of Empirical Studies on Socio-economic Impact of Climate Change

    • 摘要: 评估气候变化对社会经济的影响,是开展综合评估建模、设计最优减排路径的关键性研究内容,也是当前研究的薄弱环节之一。鉴于难以通过大规模随机控制实验评估气候变化对社会经济的影响,研究人员通常利用历史观测数据,采用统计学或计量经济学等实证研究方法开展影响评估。基于此,梳理气候变化对社会经济影响的研究进展,包括气候变化对生产活动、消费行为、人力资本与居民健康的影响研究及气候适应行为研究,凝练影响评估的关键建模技术,并从天气—气候效应、数据尺度、模型设定等方面讨论了研究结论的不确定性。建议未来研究应拓宽气候影响的研究领域和区域,进一步探究气候影响的非线性特征,强化气候适应的评估研究,着力提升数据质量和数据获取力度,以深化气候变化的社会经济影响研究。

       

      Abstract: Assessing the impact of climate change on socio-economic factors is a critical research area for conducting comprehensive assessment modeling and designing optimal emissions reduction paths. It is also one of the weak links in current research. Given the difficulty of evaluating the impact of climate change on socio-economic factors through large-scale randomized controlled experiments, researchers typically use historical observation data and empirical research methods such as statistics or econometrics to conduct impact assessments. In this paper, research progress in this area was summarized, including studies on the impact of climate change on production activities, consumption behavior, human capital, and resident health, as well as research on climate adaptation behavior. The key modeling techniques for impact assessment were obtained and the uncertainty of research conclusions was discussed from aspects such as weather-climate effects, data scale, and model settings. It is recommended that future research should broaden the research field and region of climate impact, further explore the nonlinear features of climate impact, strengthen the assessment research of climate adaptation, and focus on improving data quality and data acquisition to deepen research on the socio-economic impact of climate change.

       

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