2024年国际天然气市场分析与趋势预测

    Analysis and Trend Forecasting Prediction of the International Natural Gas Markets in 2024

    • 摘要: 2023年,全球经济复苏缓慢且不均衡,多重因素影响天然气价格走势,JKM(Japan-Korean Marker,东北亚天然气日韩基准价格)和TTF(Title Transfer Facility,荷兰产权转让设施指数)价格关联性强,HH(Henry Hub,亨利中心价格)价格维持低位震荡。展望2024年,从供需基本面入手,区分三大国际市场,补充中国情况,分析部门消费、进出口、产量、替代能源、储气、基础设施、突发事件等因素动向。结合预测模型客观计算和专家的主观判断,对2024年三大国际天然气价格走势进行综合判断和预测,预计HH、TTF、JKM均价分别在2.90~3.54美元/百万英热单位、15~18美元/百万英热单位和15.5~17美元/百万英热单位。

       

      Abstract: In 2023, the global economic recovery was slow and uneven, with multiple factors influencing the trajectory of natural gas prices. The prices of JKM and TTF exhibited strong correlation, while Henry Hub prices were low and showed volatile trends. Looking ahead to 2024, this analysis starts with the supply and demand fundamentals, distinguishing between three major international markets, and including the situation in China. It delves into sectoral consumption, imports and exports, production, alternative energies, storage, infrastructure, and unexpected events. By combining objective model prediction and expert subjective judgment, a comprehensive assessment and forecast of the natural gas prices in the three major international markets are presented. The average prices of Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM are anticipated to range from 2.90 to 3.54 USD/MMBtu, 15 to 18 USD/MMBtu, and 15.5 to 17 USD/MMBtu, respectively.

       

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