Abstract:
In 2023, the global economic recovery was slow and uneven, with multiple factors influencing the trajectory of natural gas prices. The prices of JKM and TTF exhibited strong correlation, while Henry Hub prices were low and showed volatile trends. Looking ahead to 2024, this analysis starts with the supply and demand fundamentals, distinguishing between three major international markets, and including the situation in China. It delves into sectoral consumption, imports and exports, production, alternative energies, storage, infrastructure, and unexpected events. By combining objective model prediction and expert subjective judgment, a comprehensive assessment and forecast of the natural gas prices in the three major international markets are presented. The average prices of Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM are anticipated to range from 2.90 to 3.54 USD/MMBtu, 15 to 18 USD/MMBtu, and 15.5 to 17 USD/MMBtu, respectively.