低碳技术发展产业链风险评估

    Industry Chain Risk Assessment for Low-carbon Technology Development

    • 摘要: “双碳”目标下,低碳技术将迎来大规模发展,传统技术被加速替代,会对产业链相关行业原材料、资金、劳动力需求以及污染物排放等产生直接影响。因此,亟须提前评估低碳技术发展可能引发的关键要素失衡以及部分行业环境影响攀升风险,以避免威胁产业链安全,制约“双碳”目标实现。为此,选取未来有望大规模普及的电解水制氢、电化学储能、低碳发电技术、电弧炉炼钢技术及多通道燃煤等10类低碳技术作为研究对象,评估2024—2030年各项技术大规模普及对产业链相关行业原材料、资金、劳动力需求和污染物排放的综合影响,识别潜在风险。结果表明:钴、铜、镍、锂、锰等关键矿产资源对外依存度高且未来需求增长快,面临短缺风险相对更大;发展光伏发电技术对资金的需求最大;电化学储能技术普及引致的劳动力需求增长最快;关键低碳技术产业链上游的电气机械和器材制造业将面临严峻的资金和劳动力供给不足风险;煤炭采选业将面临一定的劳动力过剩风险;金属矿采选业将面临较大的环境污染上升风险。并进一步针对技术、组件、上中下游行业可能面临的风险提出了应对策略。

       

      Abstract: Driven by the “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” goal, low-carbon technologies will experience large-scale development, and traditional technologies will be replaced, which will have a direct impact on raw materials, capital, labor demand and pollutant emissions of the relevant industries in the industrial chain. Therefore, it is urgent to assess in advance the risk of imbalance of key factors and rising environmental impacts triggered by the development of low-carbon technologies, so as to avoid threatening the safety of the industry chain and restricting the realization of the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. To this end, in this paper 10 types of low-carbon technologies that are expected to be popularized on a large scale in the future were selected, including electrolytic water hydrogen technology, electrochemical energy storage technology, low-carbon power generation technologies, electric arc furnace steelmaking technology and multi-channel coal combustion technology, as research objects, and the comprehensive impacts of large-scale popularization of each technology on raw materials, capital, labor demand and pollutant emissions of the relevant industries in the industry chain from 2024 to 2030 were assessed, and the potential risks were identified. The results show that: key mineral resources such as cobalt, copper, nickel, lithium and manganese that have a high degree of dependence on foreign countries and a rapid growth in future demand, are at relatively greater risk of shortage; the development of photovoltaic power generation technology has the greatest demand for financial resources; the labor demand caused by the popularization of electrochemical energy storage technology will grow the fastest; the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry in the upstream of the key low-carbon technology industry chain will face severe risks of insufficient capital and labor supply; the coal mining industry will face certain risks of labor surplus; and the metal ore mining industry will face greater risks of rising environmental pollution. This paper further proposes strategies to address the risks that may be faced by the technology, components, and upstream, midstream and downstream industries.

       

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