Abstract: Refined oil prices are closely related to the trend of international crude oil price. In 2023, the supply and demand relationship in China’s refined oil market altered dramatically, owing to international crude oil price fluctuations, domestic economic recovery, the development of new energy vehicles, etc. This paper comprehensively considers factors such as supply and demand, imports and exports, inventory levels, crude oil markets, geopolitics, and environmental policies. Using prediction models and expert judgment, this paper forecasts the 2024 wholesale price trends for gasoline and diesel. The results show that, influenced by the “dual carbon” goals, the expansion of gasoline production capacity is limited. Combined with the upgrading of oil standards and the strengthening of government supervision, diesel production may decline slightly. Besides, the domestic economic recovery is expected to boost the refined oil consumption market. The development of new energy vehicles and clean energy substitution will likely ease gasoline supply and demand. Increased investment in infrastructure is anticipated to drive diesel demand growth. In 2024, the gap between the supply and demand in the gasoline market is expected to ease, with an average wholesale price of 9 000~9 300 CNY/ton for No. 92 gasoline. In contrast, the gap between the production and demand of diesel is likely to widen, with an average wholesale price of 7 900~8 200 CNY/ton for No. 0 diesel.