Abstract: At present, the domestic economy has entered a new stage of development after the epidemic prevention and control has turned smoothly. The international situation is increasingly more complicated and climate impact continues, so it is necessary to construct a scientific and reasonable index, and comprehensively consider the trend changes in different scenarios of the index under the influence of external factors to describe the changes in energy economy. In this study, a three-level six-dimensional energy economic index system including 15 energy sub-industries was established, and the external factors influencing scenarios were set with reference to authoritative publications. The short-term and long-term memory models based on particle swarm optimization algorithm were introduced to carry out scenario prediction, and the development status and future trends of energy economy in China were predicted. The results show that in 2024, the energy economy will become a booster for the sustained recovery of the macro economy, and the future development will be positive and optimistic. Carbon emission reduction has a positive impact on the benign development of energy economy and risk resistance, and can offset the negative impact of international risks and climate risks to a certain extent, so the implementation of carbon emission reduction should be actively promoted. High-innovation industry and power supply industry are in an advantageous position, so giving priority to investment, maintaining stability and enhancing autonomy are the main melody melody melody of energy industry development.