减税降费政策能提高企业风险承担意愿吗?基于增值税“留抵退税”改革的证据

    Does Tax and Fee Reduction Policy Improve Corporate Risk-taking?Evidence from the Reform of Uncredited VAT Refund

    • 摘要: 在新冠疫情冲击和经济下行压力下,增强企业风险承担水平尤为迫切。随着新一轮减税降费政策落地,增值税留抵退税改革的经济拉动效应开始引起学术界与实务界的关注。利用2007—2020年中国A股上市公司面板数据,以财税〔2018〕70号文作为自然实验场景,系统考察增值税留抵退税改革对企业风险承担的影响。研究表明:增值税留抵退税改革促进了企业风险承担水平的提升,并且在税收征管强度越低、政府补贴强度越高、非国有企业以及管理层自利越低时两者的促进作用越明显。机制检验表明,“现金流效应”和“技术进步效应”是增值税留抵退税改革提升企业风险承担的重要路径。进一步分析发现,增值税留抵退税改革对企业风险承担的正向影响存在行业异质性,并且有利于促进中小企业“专精特新”转型。

       

      Abstract: Under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the downward pressure of the economy, it is extremely urgent to enhance the level of corporate risk-taking. With the implementation of the new period of tax and fee reduction policies, the economic pull effect of uncredited value added tax (VAT) refund reform has begun to attract much attention among both academics and practitioners. However, there is little research on how uncredited VAT refund reform influences corporate risk-taking decisions. Using the panel data of China’s A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2020 and taking Fiscal and Tax 2018 No. 70 document as a natural experimental scenario, how the uncredited VAT refund reform influences corporate risk-taking was systematically examined. The results show that the uncredited VAT refund reform promotes corporate risk-taking, and this positive relationship is pronounced when the tax enforcement is weak, government subsidy is high, firm’s equity right is non-state-owned and managerial selfishness is low. The mechanism test shows that the “cash flow effect” and “technological progress effect” are important paths for the reform of uncredited VAT refund to enhance corporate risk-taking. Further analysis shows that the positive effect of uncredited VAT refund reform on corporate risk-taking has industry heterogeneity and contributes to prompting SME “Specialized and New” transformation.

       

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