中国能源政策解构及其组合演进研究

    Deconstruction and Combinatorial Evolution of China’s Energy Policies

    • 摘要: 改革开放以来,中国能源生产消费持续增长,相应地,各级政府发布的能源政策数量、范围也在不断增加,能源政策呈现多样化和复杂性特征,政策目标重叠、工具乏力、举措相抵、环节失衡等问题日益凸显。利用TextCNN文本分类模型和关联度分析方法,从政策目标、工具、举措、领域和环节五个维度对35 557篇能源政策文本进行了解构和分类,测算和分析了目标—工具—举措关联度以及目标—领域—环节关联度。研究结果表明,中国能源政策发布数量持续增加,已经覆盖清洁、低碳、安全、高效四大目标,但低碳政策仍存在很大缺口;管理规划型政策一直占主导地位,其次是经济激励型政策和教育信息型政策,命令控制型政策数量较少且只作用于特定领域;政策目标与举措逐步形成了稳定的适配结构,清洁、低碳、高效目标与市场、技术、产业、财税措施高度关联,安全目标更加倾向于设施、应急、监管、法规等政策举措。

       

      Abstract: Since the reform and opening-up, China’s energy production and consumption have had sustained growth. Correspondingly, the number and scope of energy policies issued by governments at all levels have also been expanding, demonstrating increasing diversity and complexity. However, prominent issues have emerged, including overlapping policy objectives, ineffective policy tools, conflicting initiatives, and imbalanced implementation segments. In this study, the TextCNN text classification model and correlation analysis methods were employed to deconstruct and classify 35557 energy policy texts across five dimensions: objectives, tools, initiatives, sectors, and segments, measuring both objective-tool-initiative and objective-sector-segment correlations. The research findings demonstrate that China has experienced consistent growth in energy policy issuance, achieving comprehensive coverage across four key policy objectives—clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy development—while still facing significant gaps in low-carbon policy implementation. Management and planning policies have consistently dominated, followed by economic incentive policies and educational and informational policies, while command and control policies are fewer and limited to specific sectors. Stable adaptive structures have formed between policy objectives and initiatives: clean, low-carbon, and efficient objectives are highly associated with market, technological, industrial, and fiscal measures, while the safe objective prioritizes infrastructure, emergency response, regulation, and legal initiatives to ensure secure energy supply.

       

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