由广东和上海看城市化对人口控制的关键作用

    A View of the Key Role of Urbanization to Population Control from the Models of Shanghai City and Guangdong Province

    • 摘要: 1993年上海首次出现人口负增长以来,人口生育率连续保持负数,其人口绝对数增长主要缘于人口的机械增长。同时,北京、天津、沈阳等城市也陆续出现了人口生育率的急剧下降。而与此相对应的,是广东虽然自改革开放以来一直是经济发展的领先省份,深得市场经济风气之先,其人口控制却是老大难省份。通过两者对比,笔者认为,市场经济只有与城市化、现代化相结合,才能起到人口控制的作用。

       

      Abstract: In1993the population natural growth rate of Shanghai city first appeared negative.Since then the fertility of shanghai has continuously been negative growth,and the increase of the absolute population numbers was due to migration,and meanwhile,the fertility of the big cities:such as Beijing,Tianjin,and Shenyang were also declining dramatically.By contrast,the fertility of Guangdong province has remained high though Guangdong' s economic development has been in the leading position in China.On the basis of the comparison,this paper argues that only when marketing economy combines with urbanization and modernization,it can effectively control population.

       

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