模糊实物期权理论在风险投资项目价值评价中的应用

    The Application of Fuzzy Real Option Theory in the Venture Investment Value Evaluation

    • 摘要: 在对传统的NPV法分析的基础上,介绍了风险投资项目的实物期权评价方法。但是已有的研究都假定期望现金流现值和投资成本为确定值,实际上由于风险投资项目的高不确定性,因而该假设是不现实的。因此假设期望现金流现值和投资成本为模糊数,应用模糊实物期权方法进行投资决策。

       

      Abstract: Based on the analysis of the tradition Net Present Value method,this paper introduces the real option theory in the venture investment.But existing research results assume that the present values of expected cash flows and expected costs are crisp values.Actually,there is a high uncertainty in venture investment,so this assumption is unpractical.They are assumed to be fuzzy numbers and the method of fuzzy real option is applied in decision-making.

       

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