全要素生产率对中国经济增长的贡献:1952~2002

    The Contribution of Total Factor Productivity to China's Economic Growth: 1952-2002

    • 摘要: 通过建立计算全要素生产率分析模型,对1952~2002年间中国统计数据进行分析,得出我国建国以来各年的全要素生产率及其增长率。我们发现改革开放之前,我国TFP增长率波动很大,TFP不仅没有增长,反而有所下降。改革开放初期,TFP增长率呈现出大起大落的状态。从1992~1998年,TFP有了明显的提高,其增长率连续几年都为正,这段时间TFP对产出增长的贡献高达22.22%。1998年到现在,TFP出现了负增长,TFP值有所下降,但幅度不大。

       

      Abstract: By establishing analysis model of total factor productivity,this paper collects China's statistical data during 1952-2002 and estimates annual total factor productivity as well as its growth rate.The main conclusions are as follows: before the reform and opening up,China's total factor productivity fluctuated significantly and fell a little;during the early stage of the reform,there had been a lot of ups and downs in the total factor productivity;but during 1992-1998,the total factor productivity soared for seven years,and the contribution of the total factor productivity to output reached 22.22%;from 1998 till now,the total factor productivity growth is dropping slowly.

       

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