中国汽车整车制造业FDI挤入挤出效应研究
——基于产业安全视角的实证分析

The Crowding in or out Effect of FDI Invested in China's Automobile Manufacturing Industry ——Empirical Analysis Based on Industry Security

摘要: 研究FDI对汽车工业国内投资挤入挤出效应是评价汽车工业安全的重要方面。利用汽车整车制造业的总投资FDI、总产值相关数据，根据Agosin 和Mayer 等人构建的FDI 对国内投资影响的计量模型，对中国汽车整车制造FDI挤入挤出效应进行建模分析。结果表明，汽车整车制造业FDI 对国内投资存在着明显的挤出效应，因此从产业安全的角度，汽车整车制造业对FDI的流入应进行必要的控制与科学合理的疏导。

Abstract: Studying the crowding in or out effect of FDI on China's automobile industry is an important aspect of evaluating China's automobile industry security.Using the relative data of total investment,FDI, and total output value in China's automobile manufacturing industry,a model is created to discuss the crowding in or out effect of FDI invested in China's automobile manufacturing industry according to the econometric model created by Agosin and Mayer est. about the effect of FDI on domestic investment,and the result shows that the crowding out effect of FDI invested in China's automobile manufacturing industry is obvious, therefore,it is necessary to control and indirect the inflow of FDI into automobile manufacturing industry form the view point of industry security.Key words: China's auto