基于美式交换实物期权的项目估值研究

    Project Valuation Based on American Exchange Real Option

    • 摘要: 对于具有不确定投资时间和不确定投资额的风险项目,其项目价值包含了等待的价值和管理灵活性价值,可以用美式交换型期权进行估值。最小方差蒙特卡罗方法能够比较容易地计算美式交换型期权价值,为该类项目进行估价,并且能够很好地模拟投资环境的变动。实证结果表明:在项目投资决策中,等待有时蕴含着很大的价值,而常规的NPV方法把投资形态作为固定不变的量加以处理,因此可能会在总体上低估这类项目的价值。同时,实证过程还显示,最小方差蒙特卡罗方法大大提高了效率,缩短了计算时间,对于路径依赖、多因素的美式期权的价值估计尤其具有优势。

       

      Abstract: For some high-risk projects, the specific investment time cannot be decided in advance and the amount of cost(or salvage value)can be unknown at first. The managerial flexibility in such projects can be valued by American exchange option. In this paper, we developed Least Squares Monte-Carlo(LSM)and apply it to an empirical study, in which we discussed the American exchange value embedded in a managerial flexibility of defer investment. The empirical results indicate that the value of wait(option to defer)can be very large, which tends to be undervalued employing the traditional NPV approach. The results also reveal that the LSM is powerful and efficient in American exchange option valuation, and it is readily applicable in path-dependent and multifactor simulations where finite difference and binominal techniques cannot be used.

       

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