中心城市粮食安全分期预警研究——以A市为例
On Divided Early Warning of Food Security of the Central City
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摘要: 为使研究有利于指导中心城市粮食安全预警工作实践,提出分期预警的方法,设计分期预警指标体系,确定警级和警限,构建分期预警模型。以A市为例进行模型应用,结果表明,2010年A市粮食安全整体形势较好,但由于2009年A市粮食加工行业不太景气,仍然存在轻微的隐患。实证研究结果显示,该模型具有一定的实用性,需要在实践工作中不断完善和发展。Abstract: In order to guide the management of central urban food security,the paper put forward divided early warning methodology. A central urban food security divided early warning indicator system was built,the alarm rankers and thresholds were determined,and the divided early warning model was introduced. Taking City A as an example,application of the model shows that:the overall food security situation is better in 2010,but there are still minor problems because of the food processing industry slowdown in 2009. Empirical results indicate:though the model is practical,it needs further improvement and development.
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