欧洲二氧化碳期货市场有效性分析

    The Efficiency Analysis of the European CO2 Futures Market

    • 摘要: 欧盟排放贸易体系(EU ETS)是主要的国际碳交易市场,该体系排放许可单位(EUAs)的交易市场发展迅猛。为了帮助市场参与者更好地规避市场价格风险,利用单位根检验和协整关系检验验证了欧洲二氧化碳期货市场的有效范围,发现其在1个月内是有效的。在市场有效性范围内,对现货价格和期货价格建立了向量误差修正模型,同时发现该期货市场某时刻价格的影响可以持续3个月。

       

      Abstract: The Efficiency Analysis of the European CO2 Futures MarketThe European Union Emissions Trading System(EU ETS)is the main international carbon trading market, and European Union CO2 allowances(EUAs)are traded in this market with increasing intensity. In order to help the participants avoid the market price risk better, we should analyze the time range of the effective market and the price discovery mechanism of EUA futures market and spot market. For this purpose, the paper provided the unit root test and the cointegration test of the EUA futures market for the period 2009—2011,and found that the EUA futures market is efficient within one month. Furthermore, it also found that the impact of the price will continue three months by establishing a vector error correction model(VECM)which is suitable for the efficient market.

       

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