2013年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测

    International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Projection in 2013

    • 摘要: 当前, 世界经济复苏进程艰难而复杂, 下行风险显著。受此影响, 国际原油市场不确定、不稳定因素增多。在此背景下, 在回顾2012年国际原油市场主要发展历程的基础上, 从原油市场供需基本面和非基本面形势两个方面, 较为系统地展望了原油市场发展态势, 并对2013年油价走势进行了预测分析。研究指出, 欧元区经济和债务危机可能进一步恶化是2013年世界经济面临的主要风险, 因此导致国际油价走低的可能性较大。

       

      Abstract: World economy recovery now proves difficult and complex with significant downside risk, which causes international crude oil price to face growing uncertainties. Under this circumstance, this paper summarizes the main experience of oil price in 2012 and then systematically prospects the trend of oil price in 2013 from two perspectives, i.e., the supply-and-demand fundamental and other non-fundamental drivers. The results argue that the possible deterioration of European debt crisis may be the foremost risk of world economy in 2013, which may urge oil price to fall a little compared to the 2012 level.

       

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