Abstract:
In order to establish the methods of coal resource investment(CRI)decision-making based on real option, the value formation mechanism of coal resource investment project based on option should be revealed first. On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of option for CRI, we find that there are a variety of real options such as delayed option, expanded option, contracted option, stop-start option, abandoned option and other real options in the process of CRI, and propose that the CRI process is the process of those options management. The CRI value will be definitely underestimated if the real options above are ignored. Those uncertain factors which affect the value of real option are coal price, price of highly processed coal products, price volatility rate of coal or highly processed coal products, risk-free interest rate, resources distribution condition, convenience yield, production cost, exploitation scale, production scale of highly processed coal and investment term, etc. According to the change of uncertain factors, investors can take a flexible investment strategy in order to achieve the value of risk which is implicated in those uncertainties. Then, the decision-making process for CRI under real option is established. The research results show that CRI is an entire value chain and the CRI value is neither the sum of static NPV of the investment project at each stage nor the simple addition together for every single real options above, but a dynamic changing process of multi-stage and multi-factor compound option.