Abstract:
Based on the real options investment method of cultural industry, the paper introduces the dynamic programming method into the optimal investment decision analysis, and uses the random fluctuation variables to fit cultural industry project investment willingness of investors. With the help of real options thinking and the thought that decision delay can maximize the waiting value, the optimal dynamic model is set up. Then according to the Bellman rule and ITO lemma, the equilibrium investment intentions are deduced when the project value is optimal. The research further discusses the changes of project investment probability when the expected return is uncertain. The results show that: when the expected revenue is higher, the elasticity of project investment probability is small, the policymakers should choose investment immediately; when the expected revenue is low, the elasticity of investment probability is larger, the policymakers can consider postponing investment. For the part of government-funded projects, the size of the support will affect the final decision of investors. Finally, with a western cultural industry park construction project as a case for numerical analysis, the conclusion verifies the discussed results from the model.