Abstract:
The effect of coal price fluctuation on real economy has been a hotspot in the area of energy economic research. Based on the panel data in the period from Jan. 2002 to Dec. 2012, this article measures the impact magnitude, time lag and dynamic variation trend of coal price fluctuation on China's real economy by using econometric analysis. The empirical results indicate that the coal price fluctuation has both long-term and short-term positive impacts on the overall price level of China. The average impact time lags on CPI, PPI and GDP are respectively 13.5 months, 8 months and 6.5 months. Dynamic measurement results show that the elastic fluctuation of coal price on commodity price of China is great and the elasticity on PPI is larger than that on CPI. As a whole, coal price fluctuation has a positive impact on GDP with minimal efficiency attrition.