煤炭价格波动对中国实体经济的影响研究

    Impact of Coal Price Fluctuation on China’s Real Economy

    • 摘要: 煤炭价格波动对实体经济的影响已成为能源经济领域的研究重点,基于中国2002—2012的面板数据,运用计量经济分析方法和时变参数状态空间模型测度了煤炭价格波动对实体经济主要变量——物价和产出的影响效力、影响时滞及其动态变动趋势。实证结果表明:煤炭价格波动对物价具有长、短期正向影响效力,而对GDP具有较为明显的长期正向影响效力和短期负向效力;煤炭价格波动对CPI、PPI和GDP的平均影响时滞分别为13.5个月、8个月和6.5个月;动态性测度结果表明,煤炭价格波动对物价的影响弹性波动较大,总体上来看,煤炭价格波动对PPI的影响弹性大于对CPI的影响弹性,而对GDP则具有明显的正向作用,存在着不明显的效率减损。

       

      Abstract: The effect of coal price fluctuation on real economy has been a hotspot in the area of energy economic research. Based on the panel data in the period from Jan. 2002 to Dec. 2012, this article measures the impact magnitude, time lag and dynamic variation trend of coal price fluctuation on China's real economy by using econometric analysis. The empirical results indicate that the coal price fluctuation has both long-term and short-term positive impacts on the overall price level of China. The average impact time lags on CPI, PPI and GDP are respectively 13.5 months, 8 months and 6.5 months. Dynamic measurement results show that the elastic fluctuation of coal price on commodity price of China is great and the elasticity on PPI is larger than that on CPI. As a whole, coal price fluctuation has a positive impact on GDP with minimal efficiency attrition.

       

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