中国省域生活能源碳排放空间计量分析

    Spatial Econometric Analysis of Residential Energy Consumption of China’s Provinces

    • 摘要: 基于2006—2011年中国各省域生活能源消费碳排放的截面数据,运用空间计量统计分析软件和空间计量经济模型,检验了省域之间生活能源消费碳排放的空间自相关性,并分析生活能源消费碳排放的影响因素。结果表明,省域生活能源消费碳排放存在显著的空间自相关性,居民收入水平和人口规模,对居民生活能源消费碳排放的正向影响效应最为显著,生活能源消费综合碳排放系数以及生活能源价格对生活能源消费碳排放的影响也较大。在生活能源价格较难调整以及经济不断增长和人口规模不断增加趋势下,优化生活能源消费结构,减小生活能源消费综合碳排放系数,以及提倡居民生活节能,是减少生活能源消费碳排放的主要途径。

       

      Abstract: This paper makes a statistical analysis of carbon emission from residential life energy consumption of China's provinces, based on the cross-sectional data of residential energy consumption from 2006 to 2010. It also analyzes carbon emission from residential energy consumption and its influencing factors, tests spatial dependence of different provinces, using spatial statistical software and spatial econometrics models. Spatial autocorrelation test results show that regional space dependence effect exists in the space distribution of carbon emission from residential life energy consumption among adjacent provinces. Through spatial econometric model estimation, we can obtain that income effect is the most pronounced positive impact and population growth has greater contribution to carbon emission from residential energy consumption increase. And resident's energy price and comprehensive coefficients of carbon emissions of resident's energy consumption also have obvious impacts. With residents'income increase and the quality of life improvement, more energy will be consumed to improve life and more carbon will be emitted. Resident's energy price is difficult to be adjusted. Optimization of resident's energy consumption structure and advocating resident's energy-saving behavior are necessary.

       

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