粤澳地区经济增长的协同性研究

    Research on the Collaboration of Economic Growth in Guangdong and Macau

    • 摘要: 粤澳区域经济增长既是一个事关粤澳两地内在经济活力的微观问题,也是一个事关提升珠三角整体竞争力的宏观问题。双边区域合作,加速了粤澳区域经济一体化的进程,澳门已成为珠三角地区金融、贸易和旅游中心,广东也已成为世界制造业基地。为进一步研究粤澳经济一体化的相互影响程度,通过构建向量自回归模型,对1988—2010年粤澳两地GDP数据进行实证研究。结果表明:广东地区经济发展对澳门地区经济产生了较强的正向影响并存在滞后性,澳门对广东经济的影响程度相对较弱,但是协整检验说明在短期内粤澳经济波动具有同步性,粤澳两地存在经济合作的基础。

       

      Abstract: Regional economic growth of Guangdong and Macau is not only a matter of inherent vitality of the region on micro level, but also a matter of macro importance to enhance the overall competitiveness of the Greater Pearl River Delta. Bilateral sub-regional cooperation accelerates the process of regional economic integration of Guangdong and Macau. Macau has become an international center of finance, trade and tourism, while Guangdong has become the world's manufacturing base. In this paper, by constructing simultaneous equation model, an empirical research of the GDP data of 1988-2010 of Guangdong and Macao regions is carried out. Results show that: regional economic development in Guangdong has a great influence on the economy of Macau and there is a lag, but not vice versa. The co-integration test points to the synchronic fluctuations of Guangdong's and Macau's economies in the short term, which provides the basis for their economic cooperation.

       

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