外商直接投资、经济增长和CO2排放——基于中国省际数据的实证研究

    Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions—An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Provincial Data

    • 摘要: 在估算1990—2010年省级CO2排放量的基础上,采用静态和动态面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)外商直接投资(FDI)总体上增加了中国的CO2排放量,其原因在于FDI对碳排放的规模负效应强于结构技术正效应。(2)FDI对中国的环境效应存在时空上的结构性差异,加入世界贸易组织以来,FDI对环境的负面效应相比之前有所加强;相对于内陆地区,FDI对沿海地区环境的负面效应更大。(3)人均GDP是CO2排放增长的最大驱动因素,其次是FDI,工业化和城市化对碳排放也具有一定的正向影响。通过剔除异常样本、使用滞后一期FDI和FDI的外部工具变量,证实了估计结果的可靠性。

       

      Abstract: This paper first estimates the quantity of CO2 emissions in 28 provinces of China covering the years from 1990 to 2008, then uses the panel data to investigate the impact of FDI on China's CO2 emissions under the frameworks of both static and dynamic panel data model.The main findings are as follows: (1)FDI has a significant positive impact on CO2 emissions, which means that FDI increases China's CO2 emissions through the scale effect.(2)The environmental effect of FDI displays structural differences in the aspect of time and space. Since accession to the WTO for 10 years, the negative effect of FDI on environment has become stronger compared to the earlier ten years. Relative to inland areas, the negative impact of coastal areas' FDI on environment is stronger.(3) The per capita GDP is the largest driving factor contributing to CO2emissions, followed by FDI. Industrialization and urbanization of China also have certain positive effect on CO2 emissions. This paper confirms the robustness of the estimation results by eliminating abnormal samples, using external instrumental variable and lagged explanatory variable.

       

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