能源消费波动特征分析——基于门限分位点回归模型

    Analysis of the Volatility Factors of Energy Consumption—Based on the Threshold Quantile Regression Model

    • 摘要: 运用门限分位点回归模型,对中国能源消费的波动性与增长性之间的关系进行描述和检验。以中国1953—2011年的能源消费年度数据作为样本,进行实证分析。结果显示:以4.23%的增长率为门限,划分为2个阶段,各阶段不同能源消费增长速度与条件波动性的反应程度有所不同,且总体呈U形波动特征。这种非对称性说明中国能源消费的适度增长有利于保持波动的稳定性。

       

      Abstract: By using threshold quantile regression model, the correlations of energy consumption volatility with growth are described and tested. Empirical evidence shows that there is a significant relationship between volatility and growth, and the patterns of correlation vary asymmetrically. With the regimes, it is also concluded that the regime with middle growth and volatility lasts longer and keeps stable, which means that Chinese energy consumption has gone into the stable and proper growth stage.

       

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