心理异质对前景博弈策略选择影响研究

    The Effect of Psychological Heterogeneity on the Strategies Selection of Prospect Theory Game

    • 摘要: 传统博弈论以期望效用理论为基础,具有一定的局限性。前景理论是刻画风险及不确定环境下决策的最佳工具。考虑心理异质性对决策行为的影响,将前景理论中的参考依赖、敏感性递减、认知偏差、损失规避等纳入博弈分析框架中,构建局中人的前景函数,求解前景博弈混合策略纳什均衡,并将其与传统博弈混合策略纳什均衡对比,发现前景博弈能有效刻画出心理异质性对个体策略选择的影响机理,从而成功地解释一些传统博弈难以解释的现象。

       

      Abstract: Because of being based on expected utility theory, traditional game theory has certain limitations. Prospect theory is the best tool to characterize risk and make decision under uncertain environment. In this paper prospect theory is taken into the analysis framework of PT game, the weighting function of players is employed to build the perceived benefits matrix, which can replace the payoff matrix composed by the traditional payoff function. The mixed strategies Nash equilibrium of PT game is solved. The equilibrium strategies of participants are proved to be not only affected by the payoff parameters, but also influenced by their reference points, loss aversion, diminishing sensitivity and the curvature of their weighting function. The psychological heterogeneity is the reason why different people choose various strategies when facing the same condition. It shows that in the social welfare game, the probability that government choose help strategy has a positive relationship with the loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity of the unemployed, while has a negative relationship with the curvature of their weighting function.

       

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